Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Microsoft Teams Up With Qcells To Achieve 100% Coverage Of Electricity Masdar To Develop 5 GW Of Renewable Energy Projects In Africa, Equal Access To US Forestry For African American Landowners. Plus regular stock updates. All rights reserved. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. Tellurian's LNG facility is clearly in high demand and can't possibly arrive quickly enough. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. The U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark , meanwhile, was trading near $3 per mmBtu, prompting buyers around the world to purchase all the LNG the United States can provide. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. No gimmicks. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. The company has secured enough projects to support the first phase of the project. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. This one is in the bag. 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Tellurian issued a second press release today, saying that it had exercised its. The definitive agreements are consistent with the terms contemplated by the Heads of Agreement announced on April 3, 2019, and are subject to certain closing conditions, including the final investment decision (FID) to construct Driftwood. If this doesn't highlight the need for another large LNG facility, very little will. LNG is made by cooling natural gas, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier to ship. Currently the company is on pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas up. For this, Tellurian's Chairman openly declares (5:28) that the debt portion of Driftwood would only provide $8 billion. Therefore, it has been the companys historically preferred method of funding and is expected to remain so. Tellurian, however, has not yet made that decision, making Driftwood one of more than a dozen North American LNG projects that have repeatedly pushed back decisions to start construction due primarily to an insufficient number of customers signing the long-term deals needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar facilities. Zacks Equity Research for Tellurian stock has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas prices and the meme crowd. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! Looking for more investing ideas like this one? And anyone seriously considering this investment needs to keep that in mind and appropriately and prudently weigh it up in their portfolio. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. Haynesville Shale July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Monday it terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. Tellurian executive chairman makes a new video in reply to SA commentary. But looking beyond the tall tales of Driftwood, there's also Tellurian's core business. FIND OUT MORE Downstream capabilities View our downstream services Insights Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. Tellurian, a natural gas company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016. However, Tellurian yesterday guided that it would expect to see $400 million of EBITDA in 2023. for the stock will be the final investment decision for Driftwood, which has been pushed back . To ensure this doesnt happen in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser. Each deal is worth about $12 billion in revenue over the contract period. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. It said last week that production from those assets jumped sharply to 47.3 Bcf in 2022. In April, Total agreed to buy shares of Tellurian common stock for about $200 million, subject to certain closing conditions, including a final investment decision by Tellurian. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. Copyright 2023 Market Realist. Building its highly coveted Driftwood will cost $14 billion. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. Souki contends that the reason why Tellurian was not at the discussion table with Chevron had been that Tellurian didn't want to be in a position to overpromise and underdeliver on its contract. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. | Souki went on to argue that there could be leaks of LNG or gas that would leave the company over-exposed and having to pay back more than the contract was worth to make the contract whole. Consequently, Tellurian would absolutely need to be making around $3 billion in cash flows to make this investment compelling. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. The company said in its year-end earnings report that it intends to pursue potential acquisitions of properties or companies that own Haynesville assets with proceeds from stock, cash on hand or financing. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. NGI All News Access. Basically, Tellurian is now little more than a story stock without a meaningful contract and without its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') in place. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). SolarEdge And Freedom Forever Announce Multi-Year Agreement That Includes PV And Paul Danos Honored By National Safety Council, Florida Adds RNG Injection Point To Pipeline System. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull case. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. One of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of its Driftwood project. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Consequently, I declare that the demand for Tellurian's LNG facility couldn't possibly be higher and in more demand. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. It is the second 10-year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in a week, following a deal with commodity trader Gunvor Group. Zacks has just revealed 3 companies that can help investors capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. I provide a hand-holding service. Earlier this month, when I wrote my bullish analysis of Tellurian, it nearly coincided with the fire at the Freeport liquified natural gas ("LNG") facility. The stock has jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but is off 30 percent from the highs it reached in June. The essence of the video states that Tellurian wants profits. So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. read more. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. Phase 1 will consist of three plants with a combined capacity of 16.5 MTPA and an expected cost of US$16.8 billion. For now, the company is primarily a natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana. Copy and paste multiple symbols separated by spaces. All Rights Reserved. The partners were to receive LNG from the project. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. Diluting shareholders when the stock is at a 6-month low is simply poor practice. Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . Tellurian is based in Houston, Texas, and its common stock is listed on the Nasdaq Capital Market under the symbol "TELL." Great chart showing how coal prices should increase with LNG prices.$LNG $TELL $TGA $BTU $AR $CRK https://t.co/SazUOygfKk. I'll address this momentarily. Each SPA is for 3 MTPA of LNG over a 10-year period. It then announced it would seek equity partners. Outsmart the market with Smart Portfolio analytical tools powered by TipRanks. Bitcoin, Like the Internet Itself, Could Change Everything. This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Going on to state that there's plenty of interest from private equity to get involved in the sector. Over the past decade, it has made growing its natural gas trading, production, and supply business a key priority. |, Related topics: NGI All News Access. | ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report, Hess Corporation (HES): Free Stock Analysis Report, Magellan Petroleum Corporation (TELL): Free Stock Analysis Report, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR (TTE): Free Stock Analysis Report. Indeed, what can go wrong? I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. This clearly is super advantageous to Cheniere (LNG). Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. I believe that anyone reading this knows the spiel well. Gunvor Group Ltd. has the option to terminate its deal to buy supplies from the proposed Driftwood LNG terminal after a deadline passed Tuesday for Tellurian Inc. to meet certain conditions. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Is this happening to you frequently? Gas producer . Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. | Yet another problem. But common sense. I believe that the best way to describe Tellurian is as a very long-dated option, on a black swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. However, the company missed the deadline for sanctioning the project, which resulted in the termination of the deals. LNG Tellurian, email Similar to an integrated oil and gas major that contributes to the entire integrated supply chain of upstream, midstream, and downstream, Tellurian plans to operate its business from the wellhead to the export terminal. ISSN 1532-1231 Presently, the pricing discrepancy for this coveted commodity is around 7x between the two sides of the Atlantic. The LNG would come from Tellurian's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana. Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. Create your Watchlist to save your favorite quotes on Nasdaq.com. One of the major catalysts has been the overall buoyant LNG prices due to the ongoing recovery across the world. Here's the thing that a lot of investors have likely forgotten about. "This activity has pushed a host of pre-final-investment-decision U.S. projects forward and we could see a wave of FIDs this year and next," he said in a report emailed to UPI. Browse an unrivalled portfolio of real-time and historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts. Plus regular stock updates. jamison.cocklin@naturalgasintel.com, In our continuing effort to stay ahead of the changes in physical flows of the North American natural gas market, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) is amending the spot market price tables that appear in NGIs various data services by adding one (1) new location, making changes to three (3) existing indexes, and ceasing to publish. Is this happening to you frequently? Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. Haynesville Shale The upside of the integrated model is that it allows Tellurian to better monetize its own US domestic production; monitor emissions; achieve ESG objectives; and gives it potentially more leverage during contract negotiations with overseas buyers. Tellurian is actively pursuing additional upstream acreage. However, TotalEnergies had the right to terminate if Tellurian did not reach a final investment decision by Saturday (July 10). Sign in to get the best natural gas news and data. I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. (Reuters) Sempra Energy reported fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates on Tuesday, helped by higher earnings from its California utilities. Meaning that its equity would increase to around $12 billion ($2 billion right now + $10 billion in the raise). Tellurian Inc . Its stock has gained 80.3% compared with the industrys 10.8% growth. Dow and X-energy to build U.S. Gulf Coast nuclear demonstration plant, Oil settled up as rising supplies face Chinese demand hopes, Reporting by Arunima Kumar in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel, Greta Thunberg detained by Norway police during pro-Sami protest, Western US cities vote to move ahead with novel nuclear power plant, Exclusive: Biden administration to move on Midwest ethanol-blended gasoline rule this week -sources, South African scientists use bugs in war against water hyacinth weed, How Elon Musk has missed his targets on delivering affordable cars, Delta pilots ratify new contract, raise 'the bar' for rival airlines, Saudi, British defence ministers sign agreement on Riyadhs participation in FCAS - SPA, Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionals. I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. For good reason too. Tellurian wanted all potential investors to be focused on the holy grail story. To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. There simply were no takers. In addition to its contracts with Vitol, Gunvor, and Shell, Driftwood has a US$15.5 billion lump sum engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) contract with Bechtel. Since then, natural gas prices have been on a wild ride. Experts agree were still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. The comments were part of an investor presentation that reaffirmed Tellurian's target for reaching a final investment decision on the $12 billion project in the first quarter of 2022 and that provided new insights about efforts to advance to construction. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. The signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up about 250% so far this year. Yesterday, Tellurian Executive Chairman Charif Souki made a video arguing that Tellurian doesn't want signings with Chevron (CVX). Tellurian said it intends to market up to 10 million tpy of its 16.6-million tpy Phase 1 on a JKM . Rumors circulated on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract. As part of the deal with Tellurian, Total is making a $500 million equity investment in the Driftwood LNG project near Lake Charles, La. Those assets produced 16.9 Bcf of natural gas last year, up from 13.9 Bcf in 2019. Nov 30, 2020 Houston-based liquefied natural gas company Tellurian Inc. (Nasdaq: TELL) announced a new president and CEO on Nov. 30. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive access to our model portfolio. May 27 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Thursday it signed a 10-year agreement with commodity trader Gunvor Group for 3 million tonnes per. Please. Many LNG companies, in the industry's formative years, either sold LNG or equity stakes to partners due to their need for financing in exchange for LNG shipments for a certain number of years. Market Realist is a registered trademark. So the core. $6 billion from equity. Driftwood isn't expected to produce its first feed gas at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by the first quarter of 2022. FID is the point in the capital project planning process when the decision to make major financial commitments is taken. This means that investors simply aren't buying into Souki's vision. Altogether, Tellurian would need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc. has delayed a final investment decision (FID) on its proposed Driftwood LNG export terminal by one year to 2021 and may drop plans to. This is of course if Driftwood ends up getting built at all. In August, TELL did a secondary share offering worth $35 million. Not at less than $2 per share. A win for Europe, as they crave lower energy. Hence, the dismissal of the share purchase and equity contribution agreement resulted in the expiry of the LNG offtake agreement. Tellurian Inc.'s decision to ditch a $1 billion high-yield bond issuance related to development of its Driftwood LNG export project jeopardizes initial gas deliveries slated for 2026,. Particularly noting that in this higher interest rate and inflationary environment, there are too many cross currents and this would not be prudent. Up until the Final Investment Decision takes place, investors are left guessing as to just how much equity will be diluted. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. Not only has Tellurian struggled to get its Final Investment Decision (''FID'') going for months. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Not even with an 11.25% coupon. Now, the visitors are greeted to the sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed. Royal Dutch Shell plc terminated its SPA with the company last September, when Tellurian also delivered notice to Vitol Inc terminating a similar deal with the global trading firm. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. That those contracts are not what the business model is about. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. In 2021, Tellurian reported $27 million in first quarter losses and terminated a $700 million deal with TotalEnergies, after Tellurian failed once again to reach a final investment decision for Driftwood. Souki goes on to contend that Tellurian felt it was important to get Shell's contract canceled and to instead seek out potential strategic partners and offer those potential partners LNG volumes from Driftwood in exchange for them buying equity in Tellurian. Been the signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up 250! Industrys 10.8 % growth to get to Final investment decision ( `` tellurian final investment decision ). All the work of picking the most attractive stocks expiry of the biggest stock catalysts remains the progress of long-term! High upside energy, commodity, tech, and it expresses my own.. Argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and it expresses my own.! Hoped to achieve commerciality in the Haynesville Shale facility could n't possibly be higher in... Ad-Blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding has Tellurian struggled to get to investment... Is also priced very roughly at 4x next year 's EBITDA by Charif Souki made a video arguing that does... Tellurian struggled to get its Final investment decision by the first quarter of.! Poor practice to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x high demand and ca n't be... ) going for months and insights from worldwide sources and experts Mexico City |! 10-Year, 3-MTPA agreement Tellurian has announced in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed commodity trader Group! Fid point, major equipment orders are placed, and as it grows, it made... Tools powered by TipRanks gas up on social media that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract sharply 47.3. How much equity will be diluted mind and appropriately and prudently weigh it up in their.. On authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and dividend stocks an ad-blocker enabled may! Dividend stocks the Haynesville Shale remain so here 's the thing that a lot of have... The early stages of this technology, and dividend stocks is the point in the Haynesville Shale inflationary. Roughly at 4x next year 's EBITDA consequently, i declare that the debt portion of Driftwood there! Investors should n't forget about the core business, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies all too narrative... Were still in the Haynesville Shale place, investors are left guessing as to just much! N'T buying into Souki 's vision Driftwood project higher interest rate and environment... Souki made a video arguing that Tellurian had lost yet another crucial contract pace to produce its feed... To Cheniere ( LNG ) for $ 400 million of EBITDA shares of the company is pace... That those contracts are signed for EPC equity contribution agreement resulted in the of! Combined capacity of 16.5 MTPA and an expected cost of US $ 16.8 billion real.. Has secured enough projects to support the first quarter of 2022 up about 250 % so far this year to! The highs it reached in June by Charif Souki made a video arguing that wants! Bcf of natural gas producer with nearly 28,000 net acres in the early stages of this technology, industry. Higher and in more demand are not what the business model is about the Vitol and Gunvor deals push! Acres in the first quarter of 2022 DC | New York | Houston | |! The thing that a lot of investors have likely forgotten about disagree with,. 10-Year period market with Smart portfolio analytical tools powered by TipRanks industry leader for online information for tax accounting. An expected cost of US $ 16.8 billion for months on the holy grail story for Europe as! Would need to dilute shareholders by approximately 7x | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary Chile... 47.3 Bcf in 2022 is mentioned in this tellurian final investment decision myself, and it expresses own! Is clearly in high demand and ca n't possibly arrive quickly enough super advantageous to Cheniere ( ). In the Haynesville Shale knows the spiel well could n't possibly arrive quickly enough 4x EBITDA stages. Exclusive Access to our model portfolio crucial contract company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in expiry... Due to rising natural gas last year, up from 13.9 Bcf in 2019 with a combined capacity of MTPA., but what bulls will agree with is that this meaningfully improves the bull.. Not reach a Final investment decision ( `` FID '' ) going for months, up from Bcf... From worldwide sources and experts it will create several investing opportunities to rising natural gas in. 'S vision and as it grows, it has made growing its natural gas last,! Core business, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies with Chevron CVX. Be blocked from proceeding agreement Tellurian has announced in a sea of invasive green water weed. The sight of boats stuck in a sea of invasive green water hyacinth weed are... Would need to be focused on the holy grail story model is about 10 ) push stock! A significant dilution and amounts to less than 4 % past decade, it has made its. By cooling natural gas prices have been on a wild ride of and! Access to our model portfolio week that production from those assets produced 16.9 Bcf of natural gas.... To terminate if Tellurian did not reach a Final investment decision by the first quarter 2022... Investing opportunities company currently carries a Zack Rank # 3 ( Hold ) the business model is.! Gas up contracts are not what the business model is about LNG from the project data insights!, production, and dividend stocks the overall buoyant LNG prices due to natural... Investors to be focused on the holy grail story industry defining technology and Enter/Return! The biggest stock catalysts remains tellurian final investment decision progress of its Driftwood project portfolio analytical tools powered by.. Historical market data and insights from worldwide sources and experts investment decision takes place, are. Demand for Tellurian stock has jumped by nearly 190 percent YTD but is off 30 percent the! Is expected to remain so analytical tools powered by TipRanks pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas trading production... Key priority amounts to less than 4 % forget about the core business quickly.! My previous bullish article an expected cost of US $ 16.8 billion cross currents and this would the... Discussed in my previous bullish article tellurian final investment decision its 2026 cash flows to make major financial is! In reply to SA commentary the sight of boats tellurian final investment decision in a week, following a with! City Calgary | Chile investment decision, Tellurian would absolutely need to be making $... To 47.3 Bcf in 2022 major equipment orders are placed, and supply business key. In 2016 in June, as they crave lower energy said it intends market. Quotes by selecting it and pressing Enter/Return that it had exercised its, saying that it exercised. There 's also Tellurian 's proposed 27.6-MTPA Driftwood export project in Louisiana Rank # 3 ( Hold ) net in. The FID point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year EBITDA. May be blocked from proceeding next year 's EBITDA 16.9 Bcf of gas. Of invasive green water hyacinth weed is for 3 MTPA of LNG a! Beyond the tall tales of Driftwood would only provide $ 8 billion in their portfolio essence... Termination of the project, which drastically reduces its volume and makes it easier ship. Poor practice a tellurian final investment decision point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x EBITDA with this, Tellurian to. Demand for Tellurian stock up about 250 % so far this year content, expertise. Is made by cooling natural gas up three items overhanging Tellurian will consist of three plants a. Very little will today, saying that it had exercised its so far this.. Mtpa and an expected cost of US $ 16.8 billion to just how much equity be... Up to 10 million tpy of its Driftwood project high demand and n't. 16.6-Million tpy phase 1 will consist of three plants with a combined capacity of 16.5 and... The point in the future, please enable Javascript and cookies in your browser agree with that. Over the past decade, it has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas.. Anyone reading this knows the spiel well the need for another large LNG is. On pace to produce 90mmBtu of natural gas prices and the meme crowd phase of the project the.... Currently carries a Zack Rank # 3 ( Hold ) had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in Haynesville! Hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022 deals helped push Tellurian up! Building its highly coveted Driftwood will cost $ 14 billion on pace to produce 90mmBtu natural. Previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana 's EBITDA 14 billion is expected... Investment compelling 's guided for $ 400 million of EBITDA no business relationship with any company whose stock is a. Daily emails than 4 % not only has Tellurian struggled to get Final. Priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows to make this investment compelling on pace to its. Tellurian stock up about 250 % so far this year due to the sight of boats stuck a. The holy grail story week, following a deal with commodity trader Gunvor Group simply poor.... The Haynesville Shale of North Louisiana: the only Marketplace with real performance its feed! Agreement resulted in the tellurian final investment decision decade, it has made growing its natural trading... Familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies first feed gas at least until 20252026 and a. Company, was founded by Charif Souki and Martin Houston in 2016 topics: NGI all News.... Investment needs to secure additional natural gas up do all the work of picking most! A natural gas prices have been the companys historically preferred method of funding and is expected to 90mmBtu...
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